OSCAR WATCH: Producers Guild Shocks, Naming ‘Hurt Locker’ Best Pic Over ‘Avatar

After steamrolling through the early awards season (and every box office record in existence), James Cameron’s “Avatar” seemed locked into Oscar’s Best Picture slot before the nominations have even been handed out. That may have changed after tonight, as the Producers Guild of America named “The Hurt Locker” the Best Picture of 2009.

“The Hurt Locker” isn’t a surprising win because of its pedigree – the gripping war movie is one of the most acclaimed films of 2009, and it’s in a very short list of locks for a Best Picture nomination on Tuesday, February 2. The surprise comes from everyone’s perception of “Avatar” as the runaway favorite. Films like “The Hurt Locker” and Jason Reitman’s “Up In The Air” that were perceived as the big threats have diminished in mindshare as “Avatar” racks up the weeks at the top of the box office chart.

Also, these are producers, after all. Their whole bally-wick is money, preferring to make it hand over fist whenever possible. “The Hurt Locker” pulled in a mindnumbingly paltry $12.6 million at the box office this summer. “Avatar” has yet to bring this low an amount in a weekend. Yet, they chose to honor Kathryn Bigelow’s movie, rather than the billion-dollar blue baby.

Frequent RCC contributor And The Winner Is… editor Scott Feinberg writes that most of the Hollywood awards bloggers had tuned out of covering the PGA Awards, thinking the “Avatar” win was a foregone conclusion:

Anyone who tells you they saw this coming is a liar. Most of the people who follow this stuff closer than anyone — the top Oscar bloggers — actually did other things tonight rather than sit around waiting for the inevitable “Avatar” win that never came. (My former colleague Sasha Stone of AwardsDaily.com actually called off her annual PGA prediction contest since the outcome seemed so obvious and hence a contest “pointless.”)

Scott and I talked about what “The Hurt Locker” winning the PGA Best Picture award, as well as “Inglourious Basterds” taking home the Screen Actors Guild Best Pic trophy, does to the Oscar race in our video chat, embedded here:

Red Carpet Crash will be liveblogging the Academy Award nominations as they’re announced at 8:00 am ET / 5:00 am PT.