Leno Back To Late Night… Maybe

In a move that surprises no one except CEO Jeff Zucker, NBC is moving Jay Leno back to late night. Maybe.

Details are still shaky, but one thing is clear: After the Olympics, something’s changing at NBC.

The television rumor mill has been buzzing for months, as “The Jay Leno Show ratings” dipped low enough to make affiliates cry. The buzz got louder today as the industry noticed that NBC has ordered 18 pilots for the fall season.

And then, in response to Thursday’s FTVLive.com reports of “The Jay Leno Show” being outright canceled, NBC felt compelled to release this statement to “Access Hollywood”:

“Jay Leno is one of the most compelling entertainers in the world today. As we have said all along, Jay’s show has performed exactly as we anticipated on the network. It has, however, presented some issues for our affiliates. Both Jay and the show are committed to working closely with them to find ways to improve the performance.”

Thursday afternoon, NBC rushed to add:

“We have the best comedy team in the business. We remain committed to keeping Conan O’Brien on NBC. He is a valued part of our late-night line-up, as he has been for more than 16 years and is one of the most respected entertainers on television.”

Conan O’Brien has so far kept quiet. Meanwhile, Jay Leno’s Thursday night monologue hints that he’s ready to walk if there’s not an agreeable solution.

As you’ll recall, in 2004, Leno signed what was to be his final five-year contract with NBC, and Conan O’Brien signed to take over “The Tonight Show” in 2009. Around 2007, Leno started to make noise about maybe not being ready to retire after all. Rather than let Leno’s proven ratings-garnering get away to another network, Zucker offered him a four-year contract worth up to $30 million a year, with a two-year guarantee. And, rather than call a do-over on his promise to Conan O’Brien — who was doing just fine in the 12:35 slot — Zucker opted to keep the move in place and go ahead with plans to hire Jimmy Fallon to take over “Late Night,” using the rationale that it was cheaper to produce five weekly hours of a network-owned talk show than five hours of scripted drama in which they might not have an ownership stake. As Leno’s ratings slipped under 2.0, affiliates complained that not only were their ad revenues going down, but the ratings for their 11 o’clock news programs were being affected. And the affiliates were not happy.

It’s important to note that as of this writing, TMZ is the only outlet reporting that Leno is moving back to 11:35, with Conan getting the boot. Over at Deadline Hollywood, which is more frequently updated and generally more reliable, Nikki Finke doesn’t forsee anything as drastic.

This is all likely to shake out in two ways: Leno stays in his current slot, but only one to three nights a week; or Leno returns to 11:35 with a half-hour show. As of this writing, the latter seems like a safer bet: It allows Conan O’Brien and Jimmy Fallon to stay with the programs specified in their contracts; they’ll just start 30 minutes later. Besides keeping everyone in their jobs, this could work out well for NBC: It would put Leno back in competition with current ratings leader David Letterman — a fight he has a chance of winning again — and Conan O’Brien directly against the not-for-everyone Jimmy Kimmel. And would anyone but Carson Daly notice if “Last Call” went away?

In possibly-related news, Amp Radio (Los Angeles) introduced a new morning show this week, hosted by… Carson Daly.